953 WTNT80 EGRR 141611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2023 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.7N 165.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP922023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2023 7.7N 165.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 44.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2023 16.0N 44.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2023 16.7N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2023 17.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.2N 31.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2023 9.2N 31.6W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.3N 49.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2023 32.3N 49.9W MODERATE 00UTC 15.10.2023 34.8N 43.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2023 38.9N 34.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2023 41.2N 25.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2023 41.4N 19.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2023 42.4N 14.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2023 43.7N 11.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2023 46.4N 8.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2023 48.9N 4.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2023 52.7N 1.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 40.0N 12.3E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2023 40.0N 12.3E WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2023 39.9N 17.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2023 39.0N 24.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 33.4N 68.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2023 35.2N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2023 38.1N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2023 40.5N 55.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2023 41.6N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2023 41.5N 35.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2023 40.9N 26.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2023 40.0N 18.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2023 41.1N 13.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.2N 113.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2023 13.3N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2023 14.1N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2023 14.5N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2023 14.6N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2023 15.0N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.4N 60.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2023 18.4N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2023 19.6N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2023 21.2N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141611