373 WTNT80 EGRR 131611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2023 TROPICAL STORM SEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 41.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2023 14.5N 41.0W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2023 15.5N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2023 17.2N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2023 18.1N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2023 18.8N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2023 19.6N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.6N 27.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2023 8.6N 27.8W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.4N 66.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2023 31.4N 66.6W MODERATE 00UTC 14.10.2023 31.4N 59.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2023 31.3N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2023 31.1N 46.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2023 33.0N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2023 34.1N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N 63.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2023 32.2N 63.5W MODERATE 00UTC 14.10.2023 31.4N 59.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2023 31.3N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2023 31.1N 46.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2023 33.0N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2023 34.1N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.3N 31.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2023 35.3N 31.4W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2023 37.8N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2023 41.5N 24.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2023 42.8N 21.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2023 44.1N 20.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 39.5N 2.1E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2023 39.5N 2.1E WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2023 39.5N 4.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2023 39.7N 8.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2023 40.3N 13.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N 44.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2023 12.1N 44.5W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2023 12.3N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2023 13.0N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2023 13.9N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2023 15.3N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2023 17.0N 58.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2023 18.8N 61.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 36.6N 68.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2023 36.6N 68.2W WEAK 12UTC 18.10.2023 38.3N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2023 41.3N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2023 42.0N 51.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2023 42.8N 41.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2023 41.8N 32.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131611