712 WTNT80 EGRR 130410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2023 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 25.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2023 9.9N 25.6W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM SEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 38.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2023 13.6N 38.9W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2023 14.3N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2023 15.6N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2023 16.7N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2023 17.5N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2023 18.0N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2023 18.4N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2023 18.8N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2023 19.0N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2023 19.3N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.3N 73.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2023 31.3N 73.6W MODERATE 12UTC 13.10.2023 31.7N 67.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2023 30.6N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2023 30.2N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2023 30.2N 49.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2023 31.7N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2023 33.1N 39.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2023 33.6N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2023 32.7N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.4N 46.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2023 35.4N 46.6W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2023 34.7N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2023 35.7N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 38.1N 72.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2023 39.1N 70.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.10.2023 40.6N 62.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2023 46.3N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.7N 16.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2023 36.7N 16.9W WEAK 00UTC 17.10.2023 38.3N 10.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2023 41.4N 7.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2023 45.2N 7.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2023 45.5N 5.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2023 48.0N 2.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.3N 111.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2023 14.1N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2023 14.6N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 29.4N 60.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2023 29.4N 60.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130410