639 WTNT80 EGRR 041610 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2023 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 108.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2023 14.9N 108.3W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2023 15.3N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2023 16.0N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2023 16.6N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2023 15.7N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2023 15.3N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2023 15.0N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2023 15.2N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2023 15.3N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2023 15.4N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2023 15.5N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2023 15.5N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2023 15.5N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2023 15.3N 117.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2023 15.8N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 65.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2023 21.1N 65.4W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2023 21.8N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2023 24.4N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2023 27.0N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2023 30.3N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2023 32.9N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2023 35.6N 67.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2023 38.7N 64.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2023 44.4N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 130.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2023 10.9N 131.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2023 10.7N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2023 10.6N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2023 10.7N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2023 10.7N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2023 11.0N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2023 11.2N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 106.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2023 16.9N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2023 15.9N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2023 15.8N 105.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2023 16.7N 104.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 11.1N 32.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2023 11.1N 32.1W WEAK 12UTC 11.10.2023 11.4N 33.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041610