072 WTNT80 EGRR 270411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2023 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 51.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2023 17.0N 51.6W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2023 18.1N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2023 19.4N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2023 19.3N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2023 19.8N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2023 19.7N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2023 19.4N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2023 19.1N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 40.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2023 12.6N 40.8W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.0N 46.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2023 17.5N 46.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.09.2023 18.1N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2023 18.6N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2023 18.7N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2023 19.1N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2023 19.5N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2023 19.7N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2023 20.7N 57.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2023 21.9N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2023 22.6N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2023 23.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.2N 75.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2023 32.2N 75.7W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2023 33.1N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2023 34.7N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2023 36.1N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2023 36.7N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2023 35.9N 71.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2023 34.8N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2023 33.9N 68.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2023 33.5N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2023 32.9N 70.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2023 33.2N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.7N 31.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2023 32.7N 31.2W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2023 33.0N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2023 34.1N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2023 35.2N 26.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 31.5N 52.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2023 31.4N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2023 31.6N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2023 32.6N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2023 34.4N 35.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270411