709 
WTNT80 EGRR 200410

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2023

        TROPICAL STORM KENNETH    ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 120.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132023

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 20.09.2023  14.7N 120.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 20.09.2023  15.1N 123.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.09.2023  15.3N 124.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.09.2023  15.8N 125.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.09.2023  17.0N 126.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2023  18.3N 127.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2023        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE NIGEL      ANALYSED POSITION : 32.2N  54.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 20.09.2023  32.2N  54.9W    STRONG
 12UTC 20.09.2023  35.2N  54.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.09.2023  38.3N  51.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 21.09.2023  41.3N  46.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.09.2023  44.1N  38.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2023  46.7N  30.5W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 23.09.2023  50.0N  24.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2023  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.0N  33.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.09.2023  15.0N  33.7W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.09.2023  15.6N  36.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2023  16.0N  39.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2023  16.3N  41.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2023  16.4N  43.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2023  17.2N  46.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2023  17.8N  49.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2023  18.3N  52.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2023  18.6N  55.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2023  18.4N  58.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.2N  76.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.09.2023  34.2N  75.6W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.09.2023  36.3N  75.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2023  39.1N  73.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2023  42.1N  69.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2023  45.5N  64.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2023  46.8N  63.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2023  46.3N  60.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.09.2023  45.9N  55.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.09.2023        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 200410