480 
WTNT80 EGRR 191610

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.09.2023

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 119.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132023

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.09.2023  14.6N 119.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 20.09.2023  14.4N 121.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.09.2023  15.0N 123.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.09.2023  15.3N 124.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.09.2023  16.4N 125.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.09.2023  17.2N 126.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2023  19.0N 126.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2023        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE NIGEL      ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N  53.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.09.2023  29.7N  53.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 20.09.2023  32.2N  55.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.09.2023  35.1N  54.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.09.2023  38.1N  52.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 21.09.2023  40.9N  47.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.09.2023  43.6N  39.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 22.09.2023  46.2N  30.9W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 23.09.2023  49.9N  24.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2023  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.5N  27.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.09.2023  14.5N  29.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 22.09.2023  15.0N  32.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2023  15.3N  34.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2023  15.8N  37.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2023  16.3N  39.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2023  16.7N  42.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2023  17.4N  44.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2023  17.3N  46.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2023  17.2N  48.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2023  17.1N  49.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 32.5N  77.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.09.2023  32.7N  76.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.09.2023  35.4N  76.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2023  37.3N  76.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2023  37.9N  76.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.09.2023  37.7N  76.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.09.2023  38.2N  75.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2023        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 191610