671 
WTNT80 EGRR 190411

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2023

             HURRICANE NIGEL      ANALYSED POSITION : 28.1N  52.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 19.09.2023  28.1N  52.3W   MODERATE
 12UTC 19.09.2023  30.0N  53.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 20.09.2023  32.3N  55.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.09.2023  35.0N  54.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.09.2023  37.6N  52.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.09.2023  40.3N  47.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.09.2023  42.5N  40.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2023  45.2N  31.9W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 23.09.2023  49.8N  24.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2023  POST-TROPICAL

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 116.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952023

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 19.09.2023  14.1N 116.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 19.09.2023        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.1N 123.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.09.2023  14.6N 124.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 21.09.2023  14.7N 125.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.09.2023  15.5N 127.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.09.2023  16.1N 128.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2023        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.9N  21.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 21.09.2023  13.9N  21.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 21.09.2023  13.6N  24.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.09.2023  13.8N  28.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2023  14.4N  31.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2023  15.5N  33.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2023  16.4N  35.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2023  17.6N  37.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2023  18.5N  38.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2023  19.2N  41.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.09.2023  20.1N  44.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2023  21.6N  47.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 190411