846 WTNT80 EGRR 181612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2023 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 147.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2023 12.0N 147.6W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE NIGEL ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 51.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2023 26.7N 51.1W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2023 28.0N 52.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 29.7N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 31.7N 55.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2023 34.4N 55.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2023 37.3N 53.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2023 39.9N 48.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2023 42.3N 41.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2023 45.0N 33.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2023 50.2N 25.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2023 55.0N 21.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2023 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 114.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2023 13.7N 114.2W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 36.9N 43.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2023 36.9N 43.9W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2023 39.2N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 39.0N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 37.8N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.5N 122.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2023 14.5N 122.0W WEAK 12UTC 20.09.2023 15.1N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2023 15.4N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2023 16.1N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.7N 31.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2023 36.0N 30.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2023 35.2N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2023 35.9N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.9N 25.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2023 13.9N 25.5W WEAK 00UTC 22.09.2023 14.2N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2023 15.0N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2023 16.1N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2023 16.6N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2023 16.8N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2023 17.2N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2023 17.5N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2023 17.9N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.0N 140.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2023 12.3N 141.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2023 12.6N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2023 13.1N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.9N 74.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2023 34.9N 74.9W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2023 37.3N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2023 38.9N 71.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2023 39.4N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2023 39.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181612