853 WTNT80 EGRR 160413 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2023 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 136.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2023 14.7N 136.4W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2023 14.4N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 14.1N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 37.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2023 35.6N 37.9W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2023 34.7N 38.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2023 33.9N 40.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2023 33.8N 42.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2023 34.5N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2023 35.9N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 37.2N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 37.5N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 37.5N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 36.8N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2023 37.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 44.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2023 16.6N 44.1W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2023 17.8N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 20.3N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2023 22.3N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2023 23.6N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2023 25.0N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 26.6N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 28.0N 55.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 29.5N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 31.9N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2023 34.5N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2023 36.6N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2023 37.7N 50.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2023 38.6N 44.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2023 38.3N 37.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.5N 65.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2023 38.5N 65.8W STRONG 12UTC 16.09.2023 42.3N 66.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 44.9N 65.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2023 47.2N 62.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2023 49.2N 57.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2023 53.1N 46.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 54.1N 32.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2023 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.5N 78.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2023 32.4N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2023 34.2N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.7N 3.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2023 36.7N 3.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160412