454 WTNT80 EGRR 151613 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2023 HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 67.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2023 35.2N 67.0W STRONG 00UTC 16.09.2023 38.4N 66.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2023 42.1N 66.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 44.7N 66.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2023 47.1N 63.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2023 49.5N 58.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2023 53.1N 47.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 54.5N 32.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 43.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2023 13.7N 43.2W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 135.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2023 14.7N 135.4W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2023 14.5N 137.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 36.3N 38.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2023 36.3N 38.5W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2023 35.5N 38.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2023 34.7N 38.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2023 33.9N 40.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2023 33.8N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2023 34.4N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2023 35.8N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 37.3N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 38.3N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 37.6N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 36.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2023 37.3N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2023 39.1N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.9N 50.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2023 23.6N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2023 25.6N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 26.8N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 28.1N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 30.1N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 32.2N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2023 34.2N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2023 36.0N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2023 37.2N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2023 37.8N 42.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 39.4N 0.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2023 39.5N 0.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.7N 35.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2023 14.7N 35.2W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151613