845 WTNT80 EGRR 131611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2023 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 32.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2023 12.5N 32.6W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 130.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2023 9.6N 130.1W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2023 11.0N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2023 12.8N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2023 13.8N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2023 14.6N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2023 14.8N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2023 14.7N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 33.9N 40.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2023 33.9N 40.4W STRONG 00UTC 14.09.2023 35.0N 41.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2023 36.0N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2023 36.7N 39.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2023 36.8N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2023 36.3N 40.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2023 35.8N 41.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2023 35.3N 42.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2023 35.3N 43.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2023 36.4N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2023 38.3N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 67.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2023 26.1N 67.2W INTENSE 00UTC 14.09.2023 27.5N 67.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2023 29.3N 68.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2023 31.4N 68.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2023 33.9N 67.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2023 37.2N 65.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2023 40.9N 66.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 43.4N 66.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2023 45.6N 64.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2023 47.8N 59.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2023 50.6N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 52.0N 37.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2023 53.3N 20.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2023 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.1N 46.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2023 17.1N 46.4W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2023 19.2N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2023 21.1N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2023 22.5N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2023 23.9N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2023 25.3N 57.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2023 26.7N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 28.2N 62.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 30.2N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 35.3N 74.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2023 35.9N 73.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2023 39.6N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2023 41.7N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2023 43.2N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 13.4N 39.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2023 13.6N 40.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131611