204 WTNT80 EGRR 100410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2023 HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 59.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2023 21.0N 59.5W STRONG 12UTC 10.09.2023 21.6N 60.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 22.3N 61.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2023 23.1N 63.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2023 23.3N 64.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2023 23.4N 65.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2023 23.6N 66.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2023 24.1N 67.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2023 24.5N 67.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2023 25.5N 68.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2023 26.9N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2023 28.3N 68.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2023 29.7N 67.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2023 31.7N 67.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 33.9N 66.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 126.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2023 23.3N 126.5W MODERATE 12UTC 10.09.2023 24.2N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2023 24.7N 128.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2023 24.9N 128.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2023 24.5N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 38.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2023 21.5N 38.7W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2023 22.6N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 23.4N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2023 25.3N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2023 27.0N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2023 29.8N 39.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2023 31.9N 40.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2023 33.6N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2023 34.5N 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2023 35.1N 40.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2023 35.0N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2023 34.4N 38.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2023 33.0N 38.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2023 31.7N 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2023 31.0N 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 25.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2023 13.1N 25.6W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.5N 19.9E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2023 32.5N 19.9E MODERATE 12UTC 10.09.2023 31.7N 21.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 30.4N 23.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2023 29.2N 25.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 19.1N 44.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2023 19.1N 44.5W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2023 18.1N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 34.9N 22.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2023 34.9N 22.2W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2023 35.0N 23.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100410