831 WTNT80 EGRR 041612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2023 TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 39.1N 54.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2023 39.1N 54.3W MODERATE 00UTC 05.09.2023 41.3N 58.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2023 42.2N 58.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2023 42.5N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 43.1N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 43.6N 61.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 44.7N 60.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 45.6N 58.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 34.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2023 27.8N 34.0W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2023 28.0N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2023 28.4N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2023 28.4N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 28.3N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 27.5N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 26.4N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 25.4N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 31.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2023 12.0N 31.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 104.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2023 10.8N 104.7W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 37.8N 20.1E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2023 37.8N 20.1E WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2023 36.2N 18.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2023 34.4N 18.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 34.4N 17.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 33.9N 17.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 34.4N 18.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 35.6N 18.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 34.8N 15.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 33.5N 17.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 32.7N 16.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 31.2N 18.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2023 29.8N 19.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.2N 39.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2023 13.8N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2023 14.4N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 15.7N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 16.9N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 17.8N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 18.9N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 19.9N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 20.2N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 21.1N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2023 21.7N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 22.8N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2023 23.7N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.0N 20.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2023 13.0N 20.5W WEAK 00UTC 07.09.2023 14.1N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 14.5N 26.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 15.5N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 16.0N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 16.9N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 17.7N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 19.3N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2023 21.0N 43.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 23.1N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2023 25.0N 44.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.6N 112.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2023 13.9N 114.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2023 14.0N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 14.7N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 15.3N 123.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 16.5N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 17.5N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 18.5N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2023 20.4N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2023 21.7N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2023 23.0N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041612