430 WTNT80 EGRR 030412 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2023 TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.2N 62.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2023 32.2N 62.3W MODERATE 12UTC 03.09.2023 33.5N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2023 36.5N 59.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2023 38.1N 56.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2023 40.7N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2023 42.0N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2023 43.3N 58.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 43.0N 60.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 44.2N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 44.7N 59.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2023 44.7N 59.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2023 44.3N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 53.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2023 28.8N 53.7W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2023 30.9N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 31.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2023 25.5N 31.1W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2023 26.4N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2023 27.0N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2023 27.8N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2023 28.2N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2023 28.6N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2023 28.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 28.4N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 27.8N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 27.5N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 27.2N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 27.5N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 28.0N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 29.4N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 30.8N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 99.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2023 15.1N 99.5W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 21.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2023 10.6N 21.8W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.9N 18.7E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2023 35.5N 17.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2023 32.9N 17.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 35.6N 17.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 32.4N 16.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 33.0N 17.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 33.7N 16.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 33.3N 15.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 32.8N 16.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 32.2N 16.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 31.1N 17.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.5N 17.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2023 13.9N 19.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2023 14.6N 21.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2023 16.1N 23.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2023 16.7N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 17.0N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 17.5N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 18.8N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 20.0N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 21.3N 39.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.8N 44.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2023 14.8N 44.0W WEAK 00UTC 07.09.2023 15.7N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2023 16.4N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2023 17.2N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2023 17.8N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 18.3N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 18.6N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 19.5N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 118.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2023 13.5N 120.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2023 14.5N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2023 15.2N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2023 16.2N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2023 16.7N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030411