443 WTNT80 EGRR 281611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2023 TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 85.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2023 20.6N 85.4W MODERATE 00UTC 29.08.2023 21.5N 85.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2023 23.3N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2023 25.3N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2023 27.7N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2023 30.2N 84.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2023 32.6N 81.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2023 33.6N 78.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2023 34.5N 75.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2023 34.0N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2023 34.9N 70.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2023 37.0N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2023 36.8N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2023 37.2N 62.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2023 38.9N 59.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 123.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2023 18.0N 123.0W MODERATE 00UTC 29.08.2023 19.2N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2023 19.5N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2023 18.8N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2023 18.6N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2023 18.8N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2023 19.2N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2023 19.1N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2023 18.9N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2023 18.5N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 70.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2023 27.7N 70.7W INTENSE 00UTC 29.08.2023 29.1N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2023 30.6N 71.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2023 32.3N 69.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2023 34.5N 68.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2023 37.0N 64.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2023 41.4N 59.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.09.2023 49.2N 51.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2023 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 8.5N 150.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2023 8.6N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2023 8.5N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2023 7.7N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2023 7.2N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2023 6.7N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2023 6.5N 160.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2023 7.5N 162.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2023 8.7N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2023 9.8N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 21.5N 27.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2023 21.5N 27.9W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2023 23.3N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2023 24.3N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281611