889 WTNT80 EGRR 180410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.08.2023 HURRICANE HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 109.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2023 16.6N 109.5W INTENSE 12UTC 18.08.2023 17.7N 111.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2023 19.7N 112.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 21.7N 114.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2023 24.1N 114.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.08.2023 27.2N 115.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.08.2023 30.3N 116.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2023 34.9N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 157.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2023 12.0N 157.8W WEAK 12UTC 18.08.2023 11.5N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 43.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2023 12.3N 43.0W WEAK 12UTC 18.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 28.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2023 16.5N 28.6W WEAK 12UTC 18.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 16.3N 134.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2023 16.3N 134.0W WEAK 12UTC 18.08.2023 16.1N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 16.2N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 16.1N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 16.2N 144.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 16.4N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 15.8N 33.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2023 15.7N 33.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2023 16.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 17.2N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.6N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 18.0N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2023 18.6N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2023 20.0N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2023 21.6N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.2N 15.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2023 12.0N 16.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2023 13.4N 20.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2023 14.2N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2023 15.7N 26.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.9N 36.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2023 19.9N 36.3W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2023 20.5N 38.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2023 21.0N 40.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2023 21.3N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 21.3N 69.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2023 21.9N 70.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2023 22.5N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.7N 1.9E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2023 36.7N 1.9E WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180410