419 WTNT80 EGRR 170410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2023 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 128.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2023 16.4N 128.6W MODERATE 12UTC 17.08.2023 16.5N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 16.6N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 16.6N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 16.7N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 16.7N 142.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 17.3N 145.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.3N 148.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 17.4N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 25.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2023 14.6N 25.6W WEAK 12UTC 17.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 104.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2023 13.6N 104.5W MODERATE 12UTC 17.08.2023 14.7N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 15.7N 109.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 16.6N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 18.0N 113.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 19.4N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 20.9N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 23.0N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 25.5N 117.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2023 27.8N 118.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2023 30.3N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2023 32.8N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 153.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2023 12.1N 153.2W WEAK 12UTC 17.08.2023 12.2N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 12.2N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 12.0N 160.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 11.6N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.1N 34.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2023 16.1N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 16.7N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.5N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.9N 58.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2023 16.9N 58.9W WEAK 00UTC 21.08.2023 17.6N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2023 19.2N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2023 20.2N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2023 22.0N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2023 23.8N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2023 25.6N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2023 26.9N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.2N 17.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2023 14.2N 17.6W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170410