427 WTNT80 EGRR 151611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.08.2023 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 121.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2023 16.9N 121.3W STRONG 00UTC 16.08.2023 17.5N 123.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2023 17.3N 126.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.08.2023 17.5N 129.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2023 17.8N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2023 18.1N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 18.1N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 18.6N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 18.7N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 18.3N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 97.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2023 11.3N 97.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2023 12.2N 100.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2023 12.4N 103.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2023 12.6N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2023 13.6N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 14.5N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 15.2N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 16.6N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 16.9N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 18.1N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 19.3N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 21.1N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2023 22.6N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2023 24.2N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2023 25.0N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 145.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2023 11.4N 145.5W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2023 12.5N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2023 13.0N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2023 12.8N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 12.3N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.6N 29.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2023 15.7N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 15.0N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 15.1N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 15.8N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.6N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.2N 51.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2023 14.7N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 15.4N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 16.3N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.5N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2023 17.8N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2023 19.4N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2023 20.3N 71.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2023 21.0N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 23.6N 44.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2023 23.6N 44.3W WEAK 12UTC 22.08.2023 26.1N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151611