561 WTNT80 EGRR 131612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.08.2023 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 115.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2023 15.5N 115.5W WEAK 00UTC 14.08.2023 15.2N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2023 15.2N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2023 15.3N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2023 15.8N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2023 15.9N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2023 15.5N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2023 15.3N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2023 15.2N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 15.3N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 15.2N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 15.6N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 15.8N 146.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 16.3N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 16.6N 152.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.4N 136.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2023 10.4N 136.3W WEAK 00UTC 14.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.2N 144.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2023 11.3N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2023 11.4N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2023 12.5N 153.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2023 12.7N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 12.5N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.3N 111.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2023 11.3N 111.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.08.2023 12.0N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2023 12.7N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2023 13.8N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2023 14.2N 121.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2023 15.1N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2023 16.0N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.3N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.7N 42.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2023 16.8N 42.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.08.2023 17.1N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2023 17.8N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 37.9N 29.1E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2023 37.9N 29.1E WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131612