186 WTNT80 EGRR 100409 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2022 TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 87.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2022 12.7N 87.2W MODERATE 12UTC 10.10.2022 13.4N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.9N 102.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2022 16.1N 104.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2022 15.9N 105.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2022 16.7N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2022 17.7N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 36.6N 20.6E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2022 34.9N 23.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2022 33.9N 28.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2022 35.3N 30.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2022 35.7N 33.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.6N 66.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2022 33.6N 66.6W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100409