595 
WTNT80 EGRR 301612

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2022

        TROPICAL STORM ORLENE     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 106.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.09.2022  15.9N 106.9W   MODERATE
 00UTC 01.10.2022  16.9N 107.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2022  17.7N 107.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2022  18.5N 107.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2022  19.5N 107.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2022  21.3N 107.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2022  22.8N 107.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2022  23.6N 106.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2022        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N  78.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.09.2022  31.7N  78.9W   MODERATE
 00UTC 01.10.2022  34.5N  79.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2022  35.9N  79.5W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 02.10.2022  37.3N  78.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.10.2022        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 10.2N  31.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.10.2022  10.2N  31.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.10.2022  11.8N  32.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2022  12.2N  33.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2022  13.6N  35.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2022  14.5N  36.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2022  15.7N  37.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2022  17.2N  37.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.1N  73.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.10.2022  35.4N  73.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2022  35.1N  71.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2022  37.5N  70.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2022  37.4N  69.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2022  37.5N  69.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2022  37.5N  67.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.8N 113.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.10.2022  14.8N 113.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.10.2022  15.3N 113.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2022  16.0N 114.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2022  16.7N 114.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2022  16.9N 114.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2022  17.5N 115.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 301612