579 WTNT80 EGRR 270412 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2022 20.8N 83.3W MODERATE 12UTC 27.09.2022 22.8N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2022 24.4N 83.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2022 26.1N 82.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2022 27.4N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2022 28.4N 80.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2022 29.4N 80.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2022 30.5N 79.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2022 33.0N 80.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2022 35.0N 81.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2022 36.4N 80.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2022 36.8N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 35.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2022 13.4N 35.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2022 14.0N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2022 15.0N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2022 16.1N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2022 17.3N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2022 19.2N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2022 21.4N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2022 24.9N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2022 27.5N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2022 29.5N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2022 30.6N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2022 32.1N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2022 34.4N 29.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.3N 105.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2022 15.8N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2022 16.3N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2022 16.8N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2022 17.2N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2022 17.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2022 18.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2022 20.1N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.1N 22.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2022 11.1N 22.9W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2022 11.5N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2022 11.2N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2022 12.4N 27.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.3N 30.2E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2022 35.7N 31.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270412