439 WTNT80 EGRR 191611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 109.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 20.6N 109.0W MODERATE 00UTC 20.09.2022 21.3N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 21.7N 111.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2022 22.5N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 23.2N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 23.3N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 22.9N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 68.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 18.8N 68.9W MODERATE 00UTC 20.09.2022 20.3N 69.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2022 21.9N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 23.2N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 24.5N 71.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 26.1N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 28.1N 70.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2022 30.6N 68.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2022 33.9N 65.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2022 40.2N 60.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2022 46.4N 61.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2022 48.0N 61.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2022 50.0N 61.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 46.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 28.7N 46.0W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2022 29.7N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 31.4N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 33.3N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 35.3N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 36.9N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 38.2N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 38.9N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.0N 59.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 33.0N 59.8W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2022 33.3N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 33.6N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 34.4N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.6N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2022 17.6N 17.0W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2022 17.8N 18.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 18.6N 20.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 19.4N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2022 20.5N 23.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2022 22.2N 23.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2022 23.3N 22.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.6N 76.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2022 13.6N 76.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191611