212 WTNT80 EGRR 190411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2022 HURRICANE FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 67.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2022 18.0N 67.7W MODERATE 12UTC 19.09.2022 18.9N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 20.4N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 21.8N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 23.2N 71.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 24.6N 71.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2022 26.1N 70.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2022 28.2N 70.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2022 30.6N 69.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2022 33.1N 66.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2022 37.3N 60.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2022 44.8N 57.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2022 49.2N 58.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 107.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2022 19.3N 107.8W MODERATE 12UTC 19.09.2022 20.3N 109.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 20.9N 110.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 21.2N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2022 21.6N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 22.1N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 22.2N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 21.9N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.7N 60.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2022 32.7N 60.5W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2022 33.0N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 32.8N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 28.4N 46.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 28.4N 46.0W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2022 29.8N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 31.6N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 33.6N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 35.9N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 37.6N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 38.9N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 39.5N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 39.6N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 36.1N 31.3E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2022 36.1N 31.3E WEAK 12UTC 22.09.2022 36.4N 30.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 36.3N 31.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 36.3N 29.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 36.1N 31.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2022 36.6N 33.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2022 36.2N 35.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 17.5N 17.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2022 17.9N 18.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 19.0N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 20.1N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2022 21.4N 21.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2022 23.2N 21.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.1N 171.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2022 32.1N 171.3W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2022 29.8N 176.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2022 26.6N 179.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2022 25.5N 177.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190411