915 
WTNT80 EGRR 181610

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2022

        TROPICAL STORM MADELINE   ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 106.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142022

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 18.09.2022  18.3N 106.9W   MODERATE
 00UTC 19.09.2022  19.5N 108.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.09.2022  20.8N 109.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.09.2022  21.5N 110.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.09.2022  22.0N 111.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.09.2022  22.5N 112.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.09.2022  23.1N 113.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.09.2022  23.4N 115.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.09.2022        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM FIONA      ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N  66.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 18.09.2022  17.2N  66.3W   MODERATE
 00UTC 19.09.2022  18.0N  67.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.09.2022  18.9N  68.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.09.2022  20.6N  69.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.09.2022  22.0N  71.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.09.2022  23.6N  71.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 21.09.2022  25.1N  71.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.09.2022  26.7N  70.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 22.09.2022  28.9N  69.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 23.09.2022  31.5N  68.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.09.2022  35.1N  65.1W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.09.2022  41.4N  59.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.09.2022  50.5N  56.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.8N  60.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 18.09.2022  32.8N  60.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 19.09.2022  32.8N  60.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.09.2022  33.1N  59.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.09.2022  33.3N  58.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.09.2022  33.2N  57.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.09.2022        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.2N 124.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.09.2022  13.1N 124.9W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 22.09.2022  12.8N 125.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2022  12.3N 126.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2022  11.9N 126.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2022  12.1N 126.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2022  12.8N 127.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 16.7N  17.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.09.2022  17.1N  19.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.09.2022  18.3N  20.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2022  19.6N  22.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2022  20.9N  22.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 181610