046 WTNT80 EGRR 180410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.09.2022 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 99.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2022 18.0N 99.9W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 106.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2022 16.4N 106.6W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2022 18.3N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2022 19.3N 108.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2022 20.3N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 21.1N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 21.1N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 21.7N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 22.2N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 22.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 65.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2022 16.5N 65.0W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2022 17.2N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2022 17.8N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2022 19.1N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2022 20.8N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 22.5N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 24.2N 70.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2022 26.0N 70.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2022 27.8N 69.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2022 30.0N 68.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2022 32.7N 66.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2022 36.6N 62.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2022 43.0N 55.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.5N 61.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2022 32.5N 61.4W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2022 32.8N 60.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2022 32.5N 60.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2022 32.8N 59.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 32.5N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.1N 139.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 10.2N 139.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2022 11.2N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 12.2N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 13.1N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 13.7N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 14.0N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 14.4N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 14.7N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.2N 124.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2022 14.2N 124.7W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2022 13.5N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 12.8N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 12.3N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 12.0N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 11.7N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 11.9N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 36.1N 31.7E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2022 36.3N 29.8E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2022 35.9N 31.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 37.0N 31.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 17.6N 16.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2022 18.1N 18.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2022 19.4N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2022 19.7N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.5N 105.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2022 15.0N 105.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180410