845 WTNT80 EGRR 170410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 61.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2022 16.5N 61.2W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2022 16.9N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2022 16.8N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2022 17.7N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2022 18.6N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2022 19.4N 69.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 21.1N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2022 22.6N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 24.4N 70.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2022 26.3N 69.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2022 28.8N 68.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2022 31.6N 67.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 35.3N 64.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 97.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2022 14.2N 97.5W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2022 15.7N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 106.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2022 14.8N 106.2W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2022 15.3N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2022 16.3N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2022 16.7N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2022 18.5N 109.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2022 19.5N 110.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2022 20.3N 112.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 21.1N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 21.8N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 22.4N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 22.6N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 22.2N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 21.3N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.9N 67.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2022 33.9N 67.9W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2022 33.1N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2022 32.3N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.0N 139.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2022 10.0N 139.4W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2022 10.5N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 11.4N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 12.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 12.8N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 13.3N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 13.8N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 14.1N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.2N 124.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2022 14.4N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2022 14.4N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2022 14.0N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2022 13.3N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2022 12.8N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2022 12.2N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2022 12.0N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.1N 18.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2022 17.1N 18.0W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2022 17.7N 20.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 36.1N 31.6E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2022 36.1N 31.6E WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170410