578 WTNT80 EGRR 071611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2022 HURRICANE EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2022 25.6N 65.6W MODERATE 00UTC 08.09.2022 26.9N 65.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2022 28.4N 65.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 30.5N 64.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 33.1N 62.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 36.1N 58.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 39.7N 54.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 41.4N 48.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 42.8N 42.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 42.7N 39.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 42.2N 35.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2022 42.2N 31.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2022 41.5N 30.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 43.4N 37.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2022 43.4N 37.3W STRONG 00UTC 08.09.2022 45.0N 33.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 47.2N 30.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 49.5N 29.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 51.1N 30.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 48.6N 33.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 45.2N 28.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 44.1N 23.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 44.4N 19.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 43.4N 15.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 112.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2022 20.6N 112.5W STRONG 00UTC 08.09.2022 22.8N 113.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 25.2N 114.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 27.8N 115.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2022 29.7N 116.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2022 31.6N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 31.0N 121.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 30.5N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 30.5N 122.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 29.4N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 28.3N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 27.8N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 35.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2022 16.9N 35.3W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.2N 38.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2022 18.0N 39.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 19.4N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 20.1N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 20.9N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 23.4N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 36.1N 178.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2022 36.1N 178.4W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2022 34.0N 179.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 32.7N 178.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.0N 138.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2022 15.0N 138.9W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2022 15.0N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 14.8N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 14.5N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 14.2N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 13.6N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 12.9N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2022 12.2N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.5N 162.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2022 12.5N 162.2W WEAK 00UTC 11.09.2022 12.3N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 12.6N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 13.8N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 14.4N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.5N 61.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2022 35.5N 61.9W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2022 33.0N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 32.6N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 32.3N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 31.7N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2022 32.4N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.0N 21.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2022 11.5N 23.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071611