534 WTNT80 EGRR 070411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2022 HURRICANE EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 65.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2022 24.6N 65.9W MODERATE 12UTC 07.09.2022 25.5N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 27.0N 65.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2022 28.5N 65.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 30.3N 64.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 32.5N 62.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 35.4N 58.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 39.2N 53.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 42.1N 47.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 44.6N 42.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 45.2N 42.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 45.7N 40.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 45.5N 37.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 42.5N 39.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2022 42.5N 39.9W MODERATE 12UTC 07.09.2022 43.5N 37.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2022 45.2N 33.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 47.3N 31.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 49.4N 29.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 51.7N 30.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 50.0N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 46.4N 30.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 45.2N 24.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 44.2N 18.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 43.4N 14.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 45.4N 10.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 111.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2022 18.9N 111.4W STRONG 12UTC 07.09.2022 20.6N 112.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 22.6N 113.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 24.7N 114.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 26.9N 115.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2022 28.3N 117.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2022 29.5N 118.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 30.3N 120.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 30.5N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 30.8N 123.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 30.6N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 29.5N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 28.4N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 35.0N 61.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2022 35.0N 61.1W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2022 32.7N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 31.7N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 31.5N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2022 31.7N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 43.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2022 15.7N 43.0W WEAK 00UTC 13.09.2022 17.7N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.9N 17.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2022 13.2N 18.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070411