684 WTNT80 EGRR 061610 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 65.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2022 23.4N 65.6W MODERATE 00UTC 07.09.2022 24.5N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 25.6N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 27.2N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2022 28.9N 65.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 30.8N 64.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 33.3N 61.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 37.3N 57.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 41.7N 54.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 43.9N 51.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 45.3N 46.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 46.8N 46.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 47.1N 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 109.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2022 17.8N 109.5W STRONG 00UTC 07.09.2022 18.9N 111.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2022 20.3N 113.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 22.2N 114.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 24.2N 114.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 26.4N 116.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2022 27.7N 117.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2022 28.9N 118.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 29.5N 120.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 29.5N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 29.3N 122.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 29.0N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 28.0N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.9N 41.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2022 41.9N 41.7W MODERATE 00UTC 07.09.2022 42.6N 40.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 43.8N 37.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 45.5N 34.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 47.7N 31.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 50.0N 30.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 51.8N 32.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 48.8N 35.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 46.4N 29.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 45.1N 27.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 42.0N 23.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 41.0N 19.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 41.8N 15.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 30.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2022 10.9N 31.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 11.8N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 12.4N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 14.1N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 15.5N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 37.4N 61.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2022 37.7N 60.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 36.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 35.5N 61.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2022 34.2N 60.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061610