460 WTNT80 EGRR 060412 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2022 HURRICANE KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 107.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2022 15.8N 107.8W MODERATE 12UTC 06.09.2022 17.5N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2022 18.7N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 20.3N 113.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2022 21.9N 114.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2022 23.8N 115.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 25.2N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 26.2N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2022 27.2N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 28.3N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 29.1N 120.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 29.4N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 29.2N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 65.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2022 22.5N 65.0W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2022 23.3N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2022 24.2N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 25.2N 65.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 26.7N 65.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2022 28.5N 64.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 30.4N 64.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2022 32.7N 61.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2022 35.3N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 39.8N 52.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2022 43.3N 50.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 43.5N 50.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 43.6N 50.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.4N 43.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2022 41.4N 43.1W STRONG 12UTC 06.09.2022 42.0N 41.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2022 42.8N 39.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2022 43.7N 37.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2022 45.2N 33.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 47.0N 30.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 49.0N 29.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2022 50.5N 31.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 48.3N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 47.8N 28.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 46.3N 26.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2022 43.4N 22.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2022 41.3N 18.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.4N 38.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2022 17.2N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 18.7N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 20.0N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 21.4N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 19.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2022 9.5N 19.9W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2022 10.6N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 10.7N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 10.8N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 11.3N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 11.9N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2022 12.8N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2022 14.2N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060412