856 
WTNT80 EGRR 140400

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.11.2021

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS       ANALYSED POSITION : 38.8N   6.4E

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : ME022021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.11.2021  38.8N   6.4E     WEAK
 12UTC 14.11.2021  38.7N   9.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.11.2021  40.8N  11.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.11.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 30.9N  33.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.11.2021  29.2N  33.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 17.11.2021  26.7N  33.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2021  25.3N  32.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 140400