646 
WTNT80 EGRR 260401

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2021

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK       ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 105.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 26.10.2021  21.7N 105.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 26.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.2N  73.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 26.10.2021  34.2N  73.5W     WEAK
 12UTC 26.10.2021  38.0N  71.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 27.10.2021  40.6N  70.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 27.10.2021  38.7N  71.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.10.2021  39.3N  65.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.10.2021  40.8N  61.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.10.2021  41.0N  60.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2021  39.8N  57.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2021  39.2N  52.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2021  39.1N  47.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.10.2021  38.1N  44.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.10.2021  36.8N  41.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.11.2021  35.3N  39.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.3N 127.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.10.2021  10.4N 128.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 28.10.2021  10.6N 129.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.10.2021  10.3N 130.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2021   9.6N 131.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2021   9.3N 131.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2021   9.2N 131.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.10.2021   9.3N 131.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.10.2021   9.5N 130.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.11.2021   9.3N 129.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.3N 113.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.10.2021  11.3N 113.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 28.10.2021  11.4N 112.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.10.2021  10.9N 110.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2021  10.3N 109.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2021  10.0N 108.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 260401