152 
WTNT80 EGRR 250402

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2021

             HURRICANE RICK       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 101.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 25.10.2021  16.4N 101.5W    STRONG
 12UTC 25.10.2021  18.2N 101.7W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 26.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 35.1N  13.8E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 26.10.2021  35.0N  14.5E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.10.2021  35.0N  15.7E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.10.2021  35.4N  16.9E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.10.2021  36.3N  16.9E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.10.2021  36.4N  16.2E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.10.2021  37.3N  17.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.10.2021  39.4N  17.8E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2021  41.9N  16.6E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.3N 114.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 27.10.2021  11.3N 114.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 27.10.2021  11.9N 114.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.10.2021  11.7N 113.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.10.2021  11.4N 112.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.10.2021  10.9N 111.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2021  10.3N 109.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2021  10.0N 108.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2021  10.0N 106.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.6N 129.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.10.2021  10.6N 130.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 29.10.2021  10.5N 131.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.10.2021  10.0N 132.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2021   9.6N 132.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.10.2021   9.6N 133.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.10.2021   9.7N 133.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 250402