377 WTNT80 EGRR 241601 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.10.2021 HURRICANE RICK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 101.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.10.2021 15.9N 101.7W STRONG 00UTC 25.10.2021 16.6N 101.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2021 18.0N 102.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 37.0N 70.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.10.2021 37.3N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.10.2021 38.4N 64.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2021 40.3N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2021 39.2N 61.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2021 39.5N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2021 40.2N 51.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.8N 131.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.10.2021 10.9N 132.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.10.2021 10.5N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2021 10.1N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2021 10.0N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241601