765 WTNT80 EGRR 140359 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.10.2021 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAMELA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 99.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2021 25.8N 99.5W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.2N 126.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2021 13.2N 126.4W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2021 13.0N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 13.2N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2021 13.0N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2021 12.7N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2021 12.4N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2021 11.7N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2021 11.6N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2021 12.2N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2021 12.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2021 12.5N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.7N 43.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2021 29.7N 43.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2021 31.0N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2021 34.1N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2021 39.7N 23.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140359