058 
WTNT80 EGRR 131600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2021

             HURRICANE PAMELA     ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 106.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 13.10.2021  23.4N 106.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 14.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 12.8N 122.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.10.2021  13.5N 122.6W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 14.10.2021  14.0N 121.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.10.2021  14.5N 121.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2021  14.4N 120.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2021  14.2N 120.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2021  13.9N 120.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2021  13.8N 121.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.10.2021  13.5N 122.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 31.1N  39.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.10.2021  32.5N  36.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2021  36.1N  29.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.10.2021  41.9N  21.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.1N 125.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 18.10.2021  12.1N 125.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 19.10.2021  12.5N 126.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.10.2021  12.5N 126.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 131600