950 WTNT80 EGRR 130400 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2021 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 109.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2021 21.5N 109.0W MODERATE 12UTC 13.10.2021 23.6N 107.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2021 26.9N 99.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.1N 49.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2021 33.1N 49.7W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2021 33.2N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2021 35.0N 39.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2021 39.1N 33.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2021 46.1N 30.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2021 51.9N 31.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 54.2N 37.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.4N 122.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2021 13.4N 122.4W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2021 13.9N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2021 14.6N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2021 14.2N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 14.2N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2021 13.5N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2021 13.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2021 13.4N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2021 13.1N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2021 12.5N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2021 12.5N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 34.7N 16.6E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2021 34.7N 17.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2021 36.7N 20.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 38.0N 21.8E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2021 39.4N 24.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2021 39.4N 26.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 28.4N 46.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2021 29.4N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2021 31.0N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2021 32.4N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2021 32.5N 31.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130400