832 WTNT80 EGRR 111600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2021 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 56.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2021 12.6N 56.0W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM PAMELA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 108.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2021 16.4N 108.1W MODERATE 00UTC 12.10.2021 17.8N 109.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2021 19.5N 109.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2021 21.3N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2021 23.6N 107.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2021 26.9N 100.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.6N 75.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2021 34.6N 75.4W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2021 34.9N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2021 35.9N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2021 35.7N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2021 35.0N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.1N 52.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2021 33.1N 52.7W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2021 32.8N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2021 34.0N 42.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2021 37.5N 35.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2021 43.6N 31.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2021 49.6N 29.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 54.6N 31.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2021 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.9N 120.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2021 13.9N 120.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2021 14.8N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2021 15.3N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2021 14.9N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 33.8N 18.3E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2021 33.8N 18.3E WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2021 35.8N 22.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2021 38.9N 25.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2021 39.5N 25.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2021 39.2N 26.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111559