756 
WTNT80 EGRR 040401

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.10.2021

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N  42.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.10.2021  17.3N  42.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE SAM        ANALYSED POSITION : 38.8N  52.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.10.2021  38.8N  52.2W   INTENSE
 12UTC 04.10.2021  41.4N  47.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2021  46.7N  40.6W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2021  52.2N  39.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2021  50.6N  38.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.10.2021  51.9N  32.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2021  54.6N  27.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.10.2021  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.2N 140.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 08.10.2021  15.6N 140.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.10.2021  16.2N 138.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.10.2021  16.1N 138.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2021  15.8N 139.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.2N 148.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 09.10.2021  11.5N 148.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.10.2021  11.5N 150.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2021  11.8N 151.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.4N 101.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.10.2021  12.5N 101.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 040401