527 
WTNT80 EGRR 021559

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2021

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 131.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.10.2021  13.3N 131.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE SAM        ANALYSED POSITION : 33.5N  59.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.10.2021  33.5N  59.9W   INTENSE
 00UTC 03.10.2021  35.9N  57.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2021  37.5N  55.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2021  39.5N  52.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2021  42.0N  47.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2021  47.0N  40.3W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.10.2021  52.3N  36.3W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 06.10.2021  52.8N  38.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2021  50.4N  33.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2021  POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM VICTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N  36.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.10.2021  12.6N  36.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.10.2021  13.9N  38.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2021  15.3N  40.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2021  17.2N  42.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 39.4N   4.0E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2021  39.4N   4.0E     WEAK
 00UTC 05.10.2021  45.1N   8.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2021  49.7N  14.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.6N 137.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.10.2021  15.2N 136.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.10.2021  16.0N 136.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2021  16.7N 134.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.10.2021  16.1N 133.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021559