536 WTNT80 EGRR 271602 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.09.2021 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 7.9N 16.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2021 7.9N 16.0W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE SAM ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 51.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2021 15.6N 51.5W INTENSE 00UTC 28.09.2021 16.7N 52.3W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.09.2021 17.7N 53.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2021 18.6N 54.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2021 19.2N 55.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2021 20.5N 57.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2021 22.2N 59.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2021 24.5N 60.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2021 27.3N 61.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2021 31.4N 61.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2021 36.1N 59.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2021 41.9N 55.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2021 48.3N 49.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 59.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2021 30.0N 59.3W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2021 31.6N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2021 33.5N 58.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2021 35.0N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 7.2N 21.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2021 7.1N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2021 7.3N 24.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2021 7.2N 25.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2021 8.0N 26.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2021 9.7N 28.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2021 11.3N 30.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2021 12.8N 33.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2021 14.7N 36.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2021 16.5N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 7.4N 36.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2021 7.4N 36.1W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2021 7.8N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2021 7.8N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2021 7.9N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2021 8.0N 45.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2021 8.6N 47.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2021 9.9N 49.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.4N 128.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2021 13.4N 128.0W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2021 13.5N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2021 13.8N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2021 13.8N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271602