036 WTNT80 EGRR 270403 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2021 HURRICANE SAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 50.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2021 14.5N 50.7W STRONG 12UTC 27.09.2021 15.3N 51.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2021 16.3N 52.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2021 17.2N 53.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2021 18.0N 54.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2021 18.8N 56.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2021 20.0N 57.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2021 21.4N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2021 23.5N 60.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2021 26.0N 62.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2021 29.3N 62.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2021 32.5N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2021 35.9N 58.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 61.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2021 28.6N 61.1W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 7.1N 20.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2021 7.1N 20.7W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2021 7.0N 22.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2021 7.2N 24.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2021 7.3N 25.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2021 8.9N 26.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2021 11.0N 28.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2021 13.0N 30.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2021 14.9N 32.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2021 17.1N 35.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.9N 126.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2021 13.2N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2021 13.2N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2021 13.3N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2021 13.3N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2021 13.4N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2021 14.0N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2021 14.2N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 7.6N 41.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2021 7.6N 41.0W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2021 8.3N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2021 9.3N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.8N 104.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2021 13.8N 104.0W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2021 14.6N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270403