069 
WTNT80 EGRR 261600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2021

             HURRICANE SAM        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N  50.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 26.09.2021  13.9N  50.2W   INTENSE
 00UTC 27.09.2021  14.5N  50.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 27.09.2021  15.4N  51.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.09.2021  16.3N  52.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 28.09.2021  17.1N  53.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.09.2021  17.8N  54.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2021  18.6N  55.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2021  19.8N  57.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.09.2021  21.1N  59.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.10.2021  23.3N  61.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2021  25.9N  63.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2021  29.4N  64.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.10.2021  33.7N  63.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 :  8.0N  18.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2021   7.8N  19.9W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 29.09.2021   7.3N  22.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2021   7.3N  24.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.09.2021   6.9N  26.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 30.09.2021   7.3N  26.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2021   9.0N  27.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.10.2021  10.2N  29.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2021  11.7N  31.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2021  13.4N  33.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 :  8.9N  34.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.09.2021   8.9N  34.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.09.2021   9.4N  37.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.09.2021   9.3N  39.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2021   9.5N  42.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2021   9.3N  45.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2021   9.5N  49.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2021   9.4N  52.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.5N 130.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2021  13.5N 130.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.10.2021  13.8N 131.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2021  13.9N 131.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2021  14.0N 132.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.3N 104.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.10.2021  13.3N 104.6W     WEAK


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 261600