916 WTNT80 EGRR 171601 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.09.2021 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 92.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2021 31.6N 92.9W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 45.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2021 11.3N 45.1W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.7N 73.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2021 34.7N 73.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2021 37.0N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2021 38.0N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2021 38.4N 65.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2021 41.0N 60.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2021 42.7N 56.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2021 42.8N 54.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2021 42.5N 53.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2021 41.6N 53.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2021 41.4N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2021 42.5N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2021 44.1N 53.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2021 45.6N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.1N 148.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2021 12.0N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2021 12.3N 150.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2021 13.1N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2021 14.0N 152.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2021 14.7N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 19.1N 60.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2021 19.5N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2021 20.5N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2021 21.9N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2021 23.6N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2021 24.5N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2021 26.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 21.2N 31.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2021 21.2N 31.9W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2021 23.4N 31.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2021 24.2N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2021 24.7N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2021 26.0N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2021 27.9N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.4N 121.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2021 15.4N 121.2W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2021 18.0N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2021 19.7N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171601