148 
WTNT80 EGRR 100359

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2021

             HURRICANE LARRY      ANALYSED POSITION : 34.4N  62.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.09.2021  34.4N  62.3W    STRONG
 12UTC 10.09.2021  38.7N  61.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.09.2021  44.7N  57.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.09.2021  51.9N  49.0W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 12.09.2021  POST-TROPICAL

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY      ANALYSED POSITION : 32.3N  76.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.09.2021  32.3N  76.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 10.09.2021  33.3N  71.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2021  34.4N  67.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2021  35.0N  64.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE OLAF       ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 109.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.09.2021  22.8N 109.3W   MODERATE
 12UTC 10.09.2021  23.8N 111.8W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 11.09.2021  24.2N 113.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.09.2021  23.9N 114.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.09.2021  23.3N 115.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2021  22.8N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 40.2N   5.1E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.09.2021  40.2N   5.1E     WEAK
 12UTC 10.09.2021  40.7N   6.2E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2021  40.1N  10.3E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2021  38.6N  11.9E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 15.7N  22.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 12.09.2021  16.9N  22.8W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 13.09.2021  17.8N  24.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2021  19.3N  25.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.09.2021  21.1N  25.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.09.2021  22.4N  26.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.09.2021  23.5N  27.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.09.2021  25.0N  28.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 100359