496 
WTNT80 EGRR 091601

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2021

             HURRICANE LARRY      ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N  61.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 09.09.2021  31.3N  61.6W    STRONG
 00UTC 10.09.2021  34.2N  62.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.09.2021  38.6N  61.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.09.2021  44.5N  56.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.09.2021  51.4N  48.3W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 12.09.2021  POST-TROPICAL

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY      ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N  81.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 09.09.2021  31.1N  81.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 10.09.2021  32.3N  76.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2021  33.1N  72.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM OLAF       ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 108.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 09.09.2021  21.1N 108.1W   MODERATE
 00UTC 10.09.2021  22.5N 109.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.09.2021  23.5N 111.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.09.2021  24.1N 113.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2021  24.2N 114.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.09.2021  24.0N 115.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2021  23.6N 116.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 40.2N   4.4E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 09.09.2021  40.2N   4.4E     WEAK
 00UTC 10.09.2021  40.3N   5.0E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2021  40.5N   6.0E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2021  40.3N  10.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2021  39.2N  12.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2021  37.0N  16.2E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2021  36.6N  19.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2021  34.6N  22.5E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.4N  18.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.09.2021  16.4N  18.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 12.09.2021  16.7N  21.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2021  17.5N  22.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2021  18.7N  24.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2021  20.3N  24.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.09.2021  21.9N  23.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.09.2021  23.3N  23.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.09.2021  24.1N  23.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.09.2021  23.9N  23.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.9N  88.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.09.2021  10.9N  88.1W     WEAK


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 091601