664 
WTNT80 EGRR 100400

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.07.2021

        TROPICAL STORM ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 43.9N  68.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.07.2021  43.9N  68.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 10.07.2021  48.8N  60.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.07.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 100.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.07.2021  11.5N 101.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 14.07.2021  12.0N 103.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2021  12.7N 105.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2021  13.3N 107.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2021  13.3N 109.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 :  9.7N  92.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.07.2021   9.7N  92.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 14.07.2021  10.3N  94.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2021  11.4N  96.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.07.2021  12.0N  99.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.07.2021  13.3N 101.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 100400