696 
WTNT80 EGRR 080359

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.07.2021

        TROPICAL STORM ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N  82.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 08.07.2021  31.3N  82.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 08.07.2021  33.6N  81.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.07.2021  36.5N  78.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.07.2021  39.7N  73.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.07.2021  43.9N  67.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.07.2021  48.3N  61.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.07.2021  53.6N  48.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.07.2021  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N  89.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.07.2021  10.3N  89.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 13.07.2021  10.6N  91.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.07.2021  11.4N  94.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 080359